Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Governors @ Ospreys APSU @ UNF

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

19-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 7:00 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

6-21  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
📊
OSPREYS
0%
GOVERNORS --
OSPREYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Florida)
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 OspreysUNF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

27.4%

Ospreys Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNF -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNF)

APSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

APSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

UNF By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNF By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
64
AUSTIN PEAY
70
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
72
AUSTIN PEAY
75
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ospreys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ospreys Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ospreys (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Ospreys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 APSU @ UNF 77 - 76
Jan 1, 2026 UNF @ APSU 83 - 102
Mar 2, 2025 UNF @ APSU 69 - 90
Jan 2, 2025 APSU @ UNF 97 - 89
Mar 5, 2024 UNF @ APSU 98 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.5% more
North Florida: 12.7 vs Austin Peay: 10.2
Blocks (L5) +79.6% more
Austin Peay: 3.6 vs North Florida: 0.7
Steals (L5) +50.7% more
Austin Peay: 6.1 vs North Florida: 3.0
Assists (L5) +24.0% more
Austin Peay: 17.1 vs North Florida: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 64.0 77
UNF Score 70.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 46.8 22.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.0 / 17.1 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 0.7 / 3.6 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 56.0 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 79.2 78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 32.7 39.0 / 37.0
Steals 3.0 / 6.1 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 10.2 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
APSU
UNF
APSU
ML
69% 22-10
53% 16-14
66% 21-11
59% 16-11
ATS
69% 22-10
57% 17-13
66% 21-11
59% 16-11
TTL
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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