CHATTANOOGA
MOCSUTC
10-17 | Road
94
MERCER
BEARSMER
17-10 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
100%
BEARS
0%
MOCS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
UTC By 1-7 points
8.0%
UTC By 8-14 points
2.2%
MER By 1-7 points
20.1%
MER By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chattanooga
57
CHATTANOOGA
Mercer
69
MERCER
Simulated Score
Chattanooga
68
CHATTANOOGA
Mercer
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
UTC @ MER
94 - 90
Feb 5, 2026
MER @ UTC
75 - 79
Mar 8, 2025
MER @ UTC
61 - 76
Feb 1, 2025
MER @ UTC
84 - 93
Jan 1, 2025
UTC @ MER
94 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.3% more
Mercer: 6.3
vs
Chattanooga: 4.7
Rebounding (L5)
+23.8% more
Mercer: 37.5
vs
Chattanooga: 30.3
Blocks (L5)
+8.2% more
Mercer: 3.6
vs
Chattanooga: 3.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Mercer: 35.9%
vs
Chattanooga: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTC Score
57.0
94
MER Score
69.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 31.4
52.0 / 45.0
Assists
11.1 / 14.7
10.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.3
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 45.2
55.0 / 61.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 84.9
59.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 30.3
25.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.3 / 4.7
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 10.3
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.8
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
UTC
MER
UTC
ML
55%
17-14
48%
15-16
71%
22-9
53%
16-14
ATS
58%
18-13
52%
16-15
71%
22-9
55%
17-14
TTL
61%
19-12
77%
24-7
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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