VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
17-10 | Road
62
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
16-8 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
RETRIEVERS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVM -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
UVM By 1-7 points
10.7%
UVM By 8-14 points
21.6%
UMBC By 1-7 points
2.7%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Vermont
64
VERMONT
UMBC
46
UMBC
Simulated Score
Vermont
78
VERMONT
UMBC
65
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
UVM @ UMBC
59 - 74
Feb 19, 2026
UVM @ UMBC
62 - 75
Jan 29, 2026
UMBC @ UVM
55 - 64
Mar 1, 2025
UVM @ UMBC
79 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
UMBC @ UVM
80 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.4% more
Vermont: 2.3
vs
UMBC: 1.1
Turnovers (L5)
+31.5% more
Vermont: 10.0
vs
UMBC: 6.8
Assists (L5)
+15.7% more
Vermont: 14.3
vs
UMBC: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Vermont: 40.2%
vs
UMBC: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVM Score
64.0
62
UMBC Score
46.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 40.2
42.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.1 / 14.3
8.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.1 / 2.3
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 50.9
39.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 75.4
80.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 35.0
45.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.3 / 4.2
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
6.8 / 10.0
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVM
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
UVM
UMBC
UVM
ML
58%
18-13
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
ATS
68%
21-10
62%
21-13
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
TTL
39%
12-19
47%
16-18
100%
31-0
100%
34-0