WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
9-16 | Road
83
MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
13-14 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
LAKERS
0%
SEAHAWKS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
WAG By 1-7 points
0.6%
WAG By 8-14 points
0.1%
MERC By 1-7 points
4.0%
MERC By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Wagner
50
WAGNER
Mercyhurst
74
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
Wagner
68
WAGNER
Mercyhurst
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lakers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u133.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
WAG @ MERC
83 - 80
Jan 10, 2026
MERC @ WAG
70 - 69
Jan 24, 2025
WAG @ MERC
66 - 71
Jan 18, 2025
MERC @ WAG
69 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+40.6% more
Mercyhurst: 14.1
vs
Wagner: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.0%
Mercyhurst: 81.9%
vs
Wagner: 66.9%
Steals (L5)
+14.3% more
Mercyhurst: 7.3
vs
Wagner: 6.4
Blocks (L5)
+10.5% more
Mercyhurst: 2.8
vs
Wagner: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WAG Score
50.0
83
MERC Score
74.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 37.0
35.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.1 / 10.0
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.6
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 41.0
44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
81.9 / 66.9
63.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 35.7
33.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.4
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 12.6
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
WAG
MERC
WAG
ML
59%
20-14
63%
19-11
79%
26-7
57%
17-13
ATS
62%
21-13
60%
18-12
79%
26-7
57%
17-13
TTL
53%
18-16
53%
16-14
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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