Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Mountaineers MRSH @ APP

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

17-10  |  Road

94
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 6:30 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

18-10  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
THUNDERING HERD --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
103.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (App State)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

38.2%

Mountaineers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

MRSH By 1-7 points

21.6%

MRSH By 8-14 points

10.7%

APP By 1-7 points

27.2%

APP By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
50
MARSHALL
53
APP STATE
Simulated Score
69
MARSHALL
73
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 103.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MRSH @ APP 94 - 93
Jan 3, 2026 APP @ MRSH 81 - 88
Feb 28, 2025 APP @ MRSH 57 - 75
Feb 22, 2025 MRSH @ APP 69 - 59
Feb 24, 2024 APP @ MRSH 65 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +26.8% more
App State: 40.7 vs Marshall: 32.1
Blocks (L5) +24.2% more
App State: 4.6 vs Marshall: 3.7
Assists (L5) +47.3% more
Marshall: 18.4 vs App State: 9.7
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Marshall: 6.2 vs App State: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 50.0 94
APP Score 53.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.2 / 38.5 39.0 / 44.0
Assists 9.7 / 18.4 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.7 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 46.9 51.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 64.8 / 69.6 70.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 32.1 32.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.2 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 9.7 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
MRSH
APP
MRSH
ML
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
ATS
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
TTL
69% 22-10
50% 15-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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