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JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

10-17  |  Road

84
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Alico Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

12-15  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
DOLPHINS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Florida Gulf Coast)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 EaglesFGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

0.2%

Eagles Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FGCU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FGCU)

JAX By 1-7 points

0.1%

JAX By 8-14 points

0.0%

FGCU By 1-7 points

1.4%

FGCU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
51
JACKSONVILLE
80
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Simulated Score
68
JACKSONVILLE
75
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 JAX @ FGCU 84 - 86
Jan 31, 2026 FGCU @ JAX 68 - 49
Feb 18, 2025 JAX @ FGCU 56 - 72
Jan 29, 2025 FGCU @ JAX 83 - 79
Mar 1, 2024 FGCU @ JAX 59 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +87.2% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 5.4 vs Jacksonville: 2.9
Assists (L5) +79.2% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 15.6 vs Jacksonville: 8.7
Steals (L5) +28.4% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 7.4 vs Jacksonville: 5.8
Rebounding (L5) +13.1% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 35.5 vs Jacksonville: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 51.0 84
FGCU Score 80.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 28.7 23.0 / 40.0
Assists 15.6 / 8.7 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.4 / 2.9 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 43.2 55.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 75.5 75.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 31.4 35.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.8 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 9.8 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
FGCU Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FGCU
JAX
FGCU
JAX
ML
58% 19-14
74% 23-8
67% 22-11
60% 18-12
ATS
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
TTL
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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