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GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

25-2  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 11:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

15-13  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
DONS
100%
BULLDOGS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
95.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

18.4%

Dons Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

GONZ By 1-7 points

24.3%

GONZ By 8-14 points

26.8%

SF By 1-7 points

12.2%

SF By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
52
GONZAGA
43
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
83
GONZAGA
75
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dons (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 95.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 GONZ @ SF 80 - 59
Jan 24, 2026 SF @ GONZ 66 - 68
Mar 10, 2025 SF @ GONZ 76 - 85
Mar 1, 2025 GONZ @ SF 95 - 75
Feb 13, 2025 SF @ GONZ 77 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +55.5% more
Gonzaga: 8.4 vs San Francisco: 3.8
Blocks (L5) +43.6% more
Gonzaga: 3.3 vs San Francisco: 1.9
Assists (L5) +31.4% more
Gonzaga: 18.3 vs San Francisco: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
Gonzaga: 36.9 vs San Francisco: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 52.0 80
SF Score 43.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 24.4 21.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.6 / 18.3 13.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.3 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 52.7 36.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 73.2 64.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 36.9 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 3.8 / 8.4 1.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 8.7 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
GONZ
SF
GONZ
ML
39% 13-20
71% 25-10
64% 21-12
69% 20-9
ATS
42% 14-19
69% 24-11
64% 21-12
69% 20-9
TTL
73% 24-9
57% 20-15
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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