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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

19-9  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

17-10  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
RACERS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Murray State)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

75.8%

Redbirds Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-7 points

26.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

25.3%

ILST By 1-7 points

15.3%

ILST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MURRAY STATE
54
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
70
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 MUR @ ILST 61 - 78
Jan 28, 2026 ILST @ MUR 70 - 65
Jan 2, 2025 ILST @ MUR 74 - 68
Jan 30, 2024 ILST @ MUR 61 - 59
Dec 3, 2023 MUR @ ILST 72 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.0% more
Murray State: 4.1 vs Illinois State: 3.0
Steals (L5) +17.7% more
Murray State: 6.4 vs Illinois State: 5.3
Assists (L5) +41.4% more
Illinois State: 14.4 vs Murray State: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.5%
Illinois State: 79.6% vs Murray State: 70.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 61.0 61
ILST Score 54.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 31.9 43.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.4 / 10.2 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 43.9 55.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 70.1 45.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 34.1 38.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.4 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 13.4 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
MUR
ILST
MUR
ML
42% 15-21
58% 19-14
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
ATS
58% 21-15
52% 17-16
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
TTL
58% 21-15
70% 23-10
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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