MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
10-15 | Road
74
NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
10-16 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
0%
WILDCATS
100%
TERRAPINS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Maryland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MD -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)
MD By 1-7 points
12.2%
MD By 8-14 points
23.0%
NU By 1-7 points
3.3%
NU By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
91
MARYLAND
Northwestern
74
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
Maryland
68
MARYLAND
Northwestern
71
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Terrapins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Terrapins (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
MD @ NU
74 - 78
Mar 8, 2025
NU @ MD
61 - 74
Jan 16, 2025
MD @ NU
74 - 76
Feb 28, 2024
NU @ MD
68 - 61
Jan 17, 2024
MD @ NU
69 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+22.8% more
Maryland: 34.4
vs
Northwestern: 26.5
Turnovers (L5)
+9.6% more
Maryland: 11.6
vs
Northwestern: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Maryland: 42.5%
vs
Northwestern: 40.9%
Steals (L5)
+62.6% more
Northwestern: 6.3
vs
Maryland: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
91.0
74
NU Score
74.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 29.2
57.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.4 / 9.2
20.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.8
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 42.5
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 59.3
64.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
26.5 / 34.4
24.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.3 / 3.9
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.6
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
NU
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
NU
Advantage
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
MD
NU
MD
ML
47%
16-18
70%
23-10
68%
23-11
67%
22-11
ATS
50%
17-17
64%
21-12
68%
23-11
67%
22-11
TTL
53%
18-16
64%
21-12
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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