MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
12-13 | Road
70
SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
17-8 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
BEARKATS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
BEARKATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Sam Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SHSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)
MTSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
MTSU By 8-14 points
9.3%
SHSU By 1-7 points
27.4%
SHSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
91
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Sam Houston
95
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
65
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Sam Houston
78
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearkats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearkats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearkats (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Bearkats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
MTSU @ SHSU
70 - 78
Jan 4, 2026
SHSU @ MTSU
67 - 68
Feb 22, 2025
SHSU @ MTSU
70 - 74
Jan 23, 2025
MTSU @ SHSU
77 - 75
Mar 2, 2024
MTSU @ SHSU
64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.9% more
Sam Houston: 7.2
vs
Middle Tennessee: 6.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Sam Houston: 39.6%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 31.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
91.0
70
SHSU Score
95.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 31.8
33.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.9 / 15.1
20.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.1
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 47.5
43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 70.2
93.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 34.9
45.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.3
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.6
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
MTSU
SHSU
MTSU
ML
55%
18-15
56%
18-14
74%
23-8
69%
22-10
ATS
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
74%
23-8
69%
22-10
TTL
48%
16-17
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
