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UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

12-15  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Ramsey Center
View Odds Details →

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

10-15  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
CATAMOUNTS
0%
SPARTANS --
CATAMOUNTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Western Carolina)
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 CatamountsWCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

0.8%

Catamounts Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WCU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)

UNCG By 1-7 points

0.6%

UNCG By 8-14 points

0.1%

WCU By 1-7 points

4.0%

WCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UNC GREENSBORO
97
WESTERN CAROLINA
Simulated Score
71
UNC GREENSBORO
76
WESTERN CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Catamounts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Catamounts Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Catamounts (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Catamounts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 UNCG @ WCU 77 - 91
Feb 4, 2026 WCU @ UNCG 78 - 81
Feb 8, 2025 WCU @ UNCG 70 - 74
Jan 18, 2025 UNCG @ WCU 83 - 55
Feb 21, 2024 WCU @ UNCG 65 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
Western Carolina: 9.5 vs UNC Greensboro: 7.5
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Western Carolina: 38.5 vs UNC Greensboro: 33.1
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
UNC Greensboro: 15.9 vs Western Carolina: 12.8
Blocks (L5) +10.9% more
UNC Greensboro: 2.9 vs Western Carolina: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 73.0 77
WCU Score 97.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 42.3 46.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.8 / 15.9 10.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.9 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 48.9 53.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 73.7 77.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 33.1 31.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.0 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 7.5 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
WCU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
WCU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WCU
UNCG
WCU
UNCG
ML
63% 19-11
38% 13-21
76% 22-7
71% 24-10
ATS
73% 22-8
44% 15-19
77% 23-7
71% 24-10
TTL
67% 20-10
76% 26-8
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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