BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
15-10 | Road
56
UTAH STATE
AGGIESUSU
22-3 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
AGGIES
100%
BRONCOS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)
BOIS By 1-7 points
24.3%
BOIS By 8-14 points
26.8%
USU By 1-7 points
12.2%
USU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boise State
65
BOISE STATE
Utah State
56
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
Boise State
75
BOISE STATE
Utah State
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
BOIS @ USU
56 - 75
Jan 10, 2026
USU @ BOIS
93 - 68
Feb 26, 2025
USU @ BOIS
65 - 82
Jan 11, 2025
BOIS @ USU
79 - 81
Feb 10, 2024
BOIS @ USU
61 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.8%
Boise State: 85.9%
vs
Utah State: 73.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+8.7% more
Boise State: 11.0
vs
Utah State: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Boise State: 41.0%
vs
Utah State: 38.0%
Steals (L5)
+73.4% more
Utah State: 6.9
vs
Boise State: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score
65.0
56
USU Score
56.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 41.0
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
19.2 / 14.7
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.5
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.7 / 48.6
55.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 85.9
69.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 32.5
27.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.9 / 4.0
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 11.0
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
USU
Advantage
29-7-0
(80.6%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
USU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
BOIS
USU
BOIS
ML
49%
17-18
50%
16-16
66%
21-11
61%
19-12
ATS
74%
26-9
50%
16-16
67%
22-11
61%
19-12
TTL
51%
18-17
56%
18-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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