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KENNESAW STATE

OWLSKENN

14-11  |  Road

91
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-12  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
OWLS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Kennesaw State)
OwlsKENN (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Owls Cover

99.2%

Bears Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KENN -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-7 points

4.0%

KENN By 8-14 points

12.2%

MOST By 1-7 points

0.6%

MOST By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
79
KENNESAW STATE
55
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
KENNESAW STATE
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Owls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Owls (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 KENN @ MOST 91 - 87
Jan 7, 2026 MOST @ KENN 80 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Kennesaw State: 44.4% vs Missouri State: 41.0%
Turnovers (L5) +22.3% more
Missouri State: 11.5 vs Kennesaw State: 9.4
Steals (L5) +17.1% more
Missouri State: 7.4 vs Kennesaw State: 6.3
Rebounding (L5) +8.9% more
Missouri State: 35.5 vs Kennesaw State: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 79.0 91
MOST Score 55.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 36.4 38.0 / 54.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.7 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.5 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 44.4 47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 67.3 67.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 32.6 33.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.3 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 9.4 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN
15-16-1 (48.4%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +0.8
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
KENN
MOST
KENN
ML
65% 22-12
74% 25-9
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
ATS
68% 23-11
71% 24-10
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
TTL
44% 15-19
56% 19-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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