NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
21-6 | Road
74
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
12-15 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
JACKRABBITS
100%
BISON
--
JACKRABBITS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (North Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)
NDSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
NDSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
SDST By 1-7 points
2.7%
SDST By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
North Dakota State
94
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota State
76
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
North Dakota State
75
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota State
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bison
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bison (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
NDSU @ SDST
74 - 66
Jan 14, 2026
SDST @ NDSU
65 - 76
Feb 19, 2025
NDSU @ SDST
77 - 68
Jan 30, 2025
SDST @ NDSU
72 - 62
Mar 2, 2024
SDST @ NDSU
78 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+28.6% more
North Dakota State: 15.7
vs
South Dakota State: 11.2
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
North Dakota State: 10.8
vs
South Dakota State: 9.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
North Dakota State: 50.9%
vs
South Dakota State: 46.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
North Dakota State: 39.4%
vs
South Dakota State: 35.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score
94.0
74
SDST Score
76.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 39.4
31.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.2 / 15.7
21.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.4
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 50.9
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
82.6 / 79.3
57.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 34.3
35.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.7
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 10.8
10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
NDSU
SDST
NDSU
ML
75%
24-8
49%
17-18
53%
17-15
59%
20-14
ATS
78%
25-7
54%
19-16
53%
17-15
59%
20-14
TTL
53%
17-15
43%
15-20
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
