TROY
TROJANSTROY
17-10 | Road
77
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-23 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
WARHAWKS
100%
TROJANS
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TROY By 1-7 points
6.8%
TROY By 8-14 points
16.9%
ULM By 1-7 points
1.4%
ULM By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
93
TROY
UL Monroe
72
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Troy
65
TROY
UL Monroe
72
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
ULM @ TROY
65 - 80
Feb 18, 2026
TROY @ ULM
77 - 76
Feb 1, 2025
ULM @ TROY
50 - 87
Jan 15, 2025
TROY @ ULM
77 - 58
Feb 24, 2024
TROY @ ULM
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+34.7% more
Troy: 14.3
vs
UL Monroe: 9.3
Rebounding (L5)
+15.4% more
Troy: 34.7
vs
UL Monroe: 29.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Troy: 71.6%
vs
UL Monroe: 69.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
UL Monroe: 35.7%
vs
Troy: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
93.0
77
ULM Score
72.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 31.6
20.0 / 28.0
Assists
9.3 / 14.3
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.5
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 41.6
41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
69.4 / 71.6
74.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
29.4 / 34.7
34.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.1
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 12.0
4.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
TROY
ULM
TROY
ML
50%
16-16
59%
20-14
70%
21-9
61%
20-13
ATS
78%
25-7
65%
22-12
70%
21-9
61%
20-13
TTL
59%
19-13
56%
19-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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