PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
15-12 | Road
71
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
16-11 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
NORSE
0%
MASTODONS
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NKU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
PFW By 1-7 points
8.0%
PFW By 8-14 points
2.2%
NKU By 1-7 points
20.1%
NKU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
61
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Northern Kentucky
73
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
68
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Northern Kentucky
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Norse
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Norse (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
PFW @ NKU
71 - 87
Dec 6, 2025
NKU @ PFW
77 - 79
Feb 27, 2025
NKU @ PFW
79 - 74
Jan 1, 2025
PFW @ NKU
68 - 69
Jan 25, 2024
PFW @ NKU
63 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+86.4% more
Northern Kentucky: 4.4
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+40.5% more
Northern Kentucky: 15.4
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 11.0
Rebounding (L5)
+21.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 33.1
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 27.4
Turnovers (L5)
+17.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 11.8
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
61.0
71
NKU Score
73.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 37.3
34.0 / 37.0
Assists
15.4 / 11.0
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.4
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 47.9
52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
66.8 / 67.8
68.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 27.4
37.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.4
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 10.0
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
NKU
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
PFW
NKU
PFW
ML
53%
18-16
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
74%
23-8
ATS
56%
19-15
62%
20-12
65%
22-12
74%
23-8
TTL
68%
23-11
59%
19-13
100%
34-0
100%
31-0