DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
16-9 | Road
82
GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
21-5 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
PATRIOTS
100%
FLYERS
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Dayton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)
DAY By 1-7 points
27.2%
DAY By 8-14 points
23.0%
GMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
GMU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
61
DAYTON
George Mason
56
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
Dayton
78
DAYTON
George Mason
69
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Flyers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
DAY @ GMU
82 - 67
Jan 15, 2025
GMU @ DAY
67 - 59
Feb 21, 2024
DAY @ GMU
67 - 71
Feb 25, 2023
GMU @ DAY
74 - 69
Jan 22, 2022
DAY @ GMU
49 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+41.1% more
Dayton: 7.0
vs
George Mason: 4.2
Blocks (L5)
+35.4% more
Dayton: 3.5
vs
George Mason: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+18.1% more
Dayton: 15.0
vs
George Mason: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Dayton: 78.4%
vs
George Mason: 68.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
61.0
82
GMU Score
56.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 34.4
50.0 / 52.0
Assists
12.2 / 13.2
9.0 / 20.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.5
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 43.2
44.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 78.4
82.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 34.8
26.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.2 / 7.0
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 15.0
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
GMU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
DAY
GMU
DAY
ML
55%
18-15
65%
24-13
73%
24-9
64%
23-13
ATS
55%
18-15
68%
25-12
73%
24-9
64%
23-13
TTL
58%
19-14
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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