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COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

15-10  |  Road

91
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 11:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

13-12  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
RAMS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Colorado State)
RamsCSU (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

96.4%

Rebels Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

CSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

CSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

UNLV By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNLV By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
86
COLORADO STATE
68
UNLV
Simulated Score
72
COLORADO STATE
75
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 CSU @ UNLV 91 - 86
Jan 9, 2026 UNLV @ CSU 62 - 70
Feb 22, 2025 CSU @ UNLV 61 - 53
Jan 11, 2025 UNLV @ CSU 62 - 84
Feb 24, 2024 CSU @ UNLV 60 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Colorado State: 51.1% vs UNLV: 47.7%
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
UNLV: 6.0 vs Colorado State: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +14.2% more
UNLV: 4.8 vs Colorado State: 4.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.3% more
UNLV: 35.0 vs Colorado State: 31.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 86.0 91
UNLV Score 68.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 39.8 39.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.1 12.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 51.1 52.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 78.0 74.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 31.7 29.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.0 / 4.8 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 10.8 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
CSU
UNLV
CSU
ML
50% 17-17
56% 19-15
59% 20-14
65% 20-11
ATS
65% 22-12
62% 21-13
59% 20-14
65% 20-11
TTL
62% 21-13
56% 19-15
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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