Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Waves @ Pilots PEPP @ PORT

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

7-20  |  Road

95
FINAL
Wed, Feb 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

12-15  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
📊
PILOTS
0%
WAVES --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Portland)
WavesPEPP (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Waves Cover

38.2%

Pilots Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PORT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

PEPP By 1-7 points

21.6%

PEPP By 8-14 points

10.7%

PORT By 1-7 points

27.2%

PORT By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
84
PEPPERDINE
87
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
72
PEPPERDINE
75
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pilots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pilots (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 PEPP @ PORT 68 - 77
Feb 18, 2026 PEPP @ PORT 95 - 87
Jan 14, 2026 PORT @ PEPP 63 - 67
Mar 7, 2025 PEPP @ PORT 86 - 73
Feb 27, 2025 PEPP @ PORT 67 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.3% more
Portland: 7.4 vs Pepperdine: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5) +14.4%
Portland: 83.6% vs Pepperdine: 69.2%
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Portland: 13.4 vs Pepperdine: 12.0
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
Portland: 15.6 vs Pepperdine: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score 84.0 95
PORT Score 87.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.4 / 39.7 44.0 / 57.0
Assists 15.6 / 14.0 21.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 43.3 62.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 69.2 61.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 31.4 22.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.4 / 4.9 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 12.0 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
PEPP
PORT
PEPP
ML
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
82% 27-6
69% 22-10
ATS
67% 22-11
56% 18-14
82% 28-6
69% 22-10
TTL
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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