ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
20-5 | Road
76
MARQUETTE
GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ
9-17 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
RED STORM
--
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
SJU By 1-7 points
12.2%
SJU By 8-14 points
23.0%
MARQ By 1-7 points
3.3%
MARQ By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. John's
71
ST. JOHN'S
Marquette
54
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
St. John's
74
ST. JOHN'S
Marquette
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Golden Eagles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
SJU @ MARQ
76 - 70
Jan 13, 2026
MARQ @ SJU
68 - 92
Mar 14, 2025
MARQ @ SJU
63 - 79
Mar 8, 2025
SJU @ MARQ
86 - 84
Feb 4, 2025
MARQ @ SJU
64 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+19.6% more
St. John's: 40.3
vs
Marquette: 32.4
Steals (L5)
+8.0% more
St. John's: 8.2
vs
Marquette: 7.6
Turnovers (L5)
+65.0% more
Marquette: 12.2
vs
St. John's: 7.4
Assists (L5)
+25.0% more
Marquette: 18.6
vs
St. John's: 14.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJU Score
71.0
76
MARQ Score
54.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 28.8
29.0 / 32.0
Assists
18.6 / 14.9
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.6
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 42.6
43.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 70.2
75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 40.3
33.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.2
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 7.4
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
MARQ
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
MARQ
12-19-1
(38.7%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
SJU
MARQ
SJU
ML
59%
19-13
62%
18-11
62%
20-12
62%
18-11
ATS
53%
17-15
66%
19-10
62%
20-12
62%
18-11
TTL
50%
16-16
59%
17-12
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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