SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
15-10 | Road
71
ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
14-11 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
BONNIES
100%
HAWKS
--
BONNIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JOES -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
JOES By 1-7 points
6.8%
JOES By 8-14 points
16.9%
SBU By 1-7 points
1.4%
SBU By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Joseph's
104
SAINT JOSEPH'S
St. Bonaventure
83
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
Saint Joseph's
68
SAINT JOSEPH'S
St. Bonaventure
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bonnies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Bonnies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
JOES @ SBU
71 - 65
Jan 14, 2026
SBU @ JOES
64 - 68
Feb 26, 2025
SBU @ JOES
64 - 75
Jan 26, 2024
JOES @ SBU
72 - 91
Feb 26, 2023
JOES @ SBU
76 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Saint Joseph's: 37.1
vs
St. Bonaventure: 33.9
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
St. Bonaventure: 5.1
vs
Saint Joseph's: 3.9
Steals (L5)
+20.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 6.1
vs
Saint Joseph's: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
St. Bonaventure: 73.0%
vs
Saint Joseph's: 62.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JOES Score
104.0
71
SBU Score
83.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 35.1
38.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.8 / 15.8
15.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.1 / 3.9
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 41.0
36.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 62.4
100.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 37.1
43.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.0
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.1
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
SBU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
JOES
SBU
JOES
ML
59%
20-14
51%
18-17
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
ATS
50%
17-17
60%
21-14
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
TTL
38%
13-21
54%
19-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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