Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Kings ORL @ SAC

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

28-25  |  Road

131
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-44  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
📊
KINGS
100%
MAGIC --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

27.4%

Kings Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

ORL By 1-7 points

26.8%

ORL By 8-14 points

24.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

16.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
122
ORLANDO
116
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
108
ORLANDO
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Magic Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.0 Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 SAC @ ORL 117 - 121
Feb 19, 2026 ORL @ SAC 131 - 94
Mar 29, 2025 SAC @ ORL 91 - 121
Feb 5, 2025 ORL @ SAC 130 - 111
Mar 23, 2024 SAC @ ORL 109 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.1% more
Orlando: 12.3 vs Sacramento: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +29.7% more
Orlando: 5.6 vs Sacramento: 3.9
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Orlando: 28.2 vs Sacramento: 23.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.7%
Orlando: 36.2% vs Sacramento: 25.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 122.0 131
SAC Score 116.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.6 / 36.2 30.0 / 54.0
Assists 23.6 / 28.2 22.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.9 / 5.6 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 45.0 41.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 85.8 80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 44.0 / 37.0 48.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.6 / 12.3 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 12.0 19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
ORL
SAC
ORL
ML
55% 55-45
61% 65-42
61% 50-32
56% 51-40
ATS
54% 52-45-3
64% 68-38-1
61% 50-32
56% 51-40
TTL
58% 57-42-1
57% 61-46
100% 82-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 46 minutes ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day ago
Orlando Magic Preseason: Three Players with the Most to Gain Und…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Thunder's Young Core Shines in Preseason Loss to Pelicans
yahoo 1 day, 18 hours ago
Joel Embiid: The X-Factor in Philadelphia's Star-Studded Lineup
si 2 days ago