DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
35-20 | Road
114
LA
CLIPPERSLAC
26-28 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
CLIPPERS
100%
NUGGETS
--
CLIPPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
23.0%
LAC By 1-7 points
18.6%
LAC By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
115
DENVER
LA
110
LA
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
LA
115
LA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Clippers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Clippers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u226.0
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u226.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
DEN @ LAC
114 - 115
Jan 30, 2026
LAC @ DEN
109 - 122
Nov 12, 2025
DEN @ LAC
130 - 116
Oct 12, 2025
DEN @ LAC
102 - 94
May 3, 2025
LAC @ DEN
101 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
Denver: 28.4
vs
LA: 22.8
Rebounding (L5)
+14.8% more
Denver: 45.0
vs
LA: 38.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Denver: 39.9%
vs
LA: 37.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Denver: 50.0%
vs
LA: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
115.0
114
LAC Score
110.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 39.9
24.0 / 32.0
Assists
22.8 / 28.4
27.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.2
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 50.0
47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 78.4
83.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 45.0
45.0 / 45.0
Steals
10.2 / 5.9
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 14.2
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
LAC
41-42-0
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
DEN
LAC
DEN
ML
60%
59-40
54%
57-48
55%
45-37
55%
47-39
ATS
66%
65-33-1
63%
65-38-2
55%
45-37
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
58-40-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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