HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
33-20 | Road
105
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
26-29 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
HORNETS
0%
ROCKETS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
HOU By 1-7 points
20.1%
HOU By 8-14 points
9.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
27.4%
CHA By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o218.0
Loss
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u218.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
HOU @ CHA
105 - 101
Feb 5, 2026
CHA @ HOU
109 - 99
Dec 23, 2024
HOU @ CHA
114 - 101
Oct 23, 2024
CHA @ HOU
110 - 105
Jan 26, 2024
HOU @ CHA
138 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.0%
Charlotte: 91.5%
vs
Houston: 78.5%
Blocks (L5)
+32.8% more
Houston: 6.6
vs
Charlotte: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Houston: 45.4%
vs
Charlotte: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
108.0
105
CHA Score
112.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 37.8
33.0 / 28.0
Assists
23.4 / 23.0
25.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.5 / 6.6
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 45.4
43.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
91.5 / 78.5
83.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
47.3 / 44.3
46.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.8
7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
17.6 / 17.4
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
HOU
CHA
HOU
ML
61%
60-39
61%
69-44
48%
40-44
59%
51-35
ATS
60%
59-40
62%
70-43
48%
40-44
59%
51-35
TTL
58%
57-42
51%
58-55
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…