Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Wizards IND @ WSH

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-40  |  Road

105
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

14-39  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
PACERS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

57.9%

Wizards Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

26.8%

IND By 8-14 points

18.6%

WSH By 1-7 points

23.0%

WSH By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
118
INDIANA
116
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
115
INDIANA
120
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (-2) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.0 Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 IND @ WSH 118 - 131
Feb 19, 2026 IND @ WSH 105 - 112
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ IND 108 - 89
Nov 28, 2025 WSH @ IND 86 - 119
Apr 8, 2025 WSH @ IND 98 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.2% more
Indiana: 29.0 vs Washington: 24.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Indiana: 48.8% vs Washington: 43.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Indiana: 36.9% vs Washington: 34.2%
Blocks (L5) +29.4% more
Washington: 5.4 vs Indiana: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 118.0 105
WSH Score 116.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 36.9 30.0 / 36.0
Assists 24.3 / 29.0 30.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.2 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 48.8 44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 75.4 75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 41.2 46.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.4 / 8.2 14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 13.0 10.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
IND
WSH
IND
ML
70% 112-49
48% 47-50
47% 39-44
54% 45-38
ATS
69% 111-49-1
59% 57-40
47% 39-44
54% 45-38
TTL
74% 119-41-1
54% 52-45
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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