ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
26-30 | Road
117
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
30-24 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
76ERS
0%
HAWKS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-7 points
12.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
4.0%
PHI By 1-7 points
24.3%
PHI By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
114
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
123
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
76ers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
76ers (-1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
PHI @ ATL
116 - 125
Feb 19, 2026
ATL @ PHI
117 - 107
Dec 14, 2025
PHI @ ATL
117 - 120
Nov 30, 2025
ATL @ PHI
142 - 134
Apr 11, 2025
ATL @ PHI
124 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
Philadelphia: 15.3
vs
Atlanta: 13.2
Blocks (L5)
+13.1% more
Philadelphia: 5.4
vs
Atlanta: 4.7
Steals (L5)
+9.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.5
vs
Atlanta: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Philadelphia: 82.9%
vs
Atlanta: 78.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
114.0
117
PHI Score
123.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 33.6
33.0 / 31.0
Assists
21.3 / 27.3
17.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.4 / 4.7
13.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 44.8
38.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
82.9 / 78.0
81.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 42.2
46.0 / 51.0
Steals
9.5 / 8.7
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 13.2
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
63%
69-40
50%
52-52
48%
45-48
55%
48-40
ATS
65%
71-38
53%
55-48-1
48%
45-48
55%
48-40
TTL
55%
60-49
53%
55-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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