Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Cowboys FRES @ WYO

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

12-13  |  Road

82
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 8:30 PM ET
Arena-Auditorium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

COWBOYSWYO

13-12  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
BULLDOGS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
WYOMING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Wyoming)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 CowboysWYO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Cowboys Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WYO -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

FRES By 1-7 points

0.0%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.0%

WYO By 1-7 points

0.0%

WYO By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
44
FRESNO STATE
89
WYOMING
Simulated Score
68
FRESNO STATE
72
WYOMING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 FRES @ WYO 82 - 92
Jan 17, 2026 WYO @ FRES 60 - 63
Mar 4, 2025 WYO @ FRES 58 - 62
Jan 28, 2025 FRES @ WYO 72 - 83
Mar 13, 2024 FRES @ WYO 77 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.0% more
Fresno State: 2.2 vs Wyoming: 1.6
Steals (L5) +25.0% more
Fresno State: 7.0 vs Wyoming: 5.2
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
Fresno State: 10.4 vs Wyoming: 8.7
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Fresno State: 34.6 vs Wyoming: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 44.0 82
WYO Score 89.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 32.4 45.0 / 47.0
Assists 12.6 / 12.3 21.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.6 / 2.2 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 46.4 54.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 74.2 82.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 34.6 32.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.0 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 10.4 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
WYO Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
WYO
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
WYO
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
FRES
WYO
FRES
ML
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
74% 23-8
ATS
64% 21-12
75% 24-8
70% 23-10
74% 23-8
TTL
64% 21-12
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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