KENT STATE
GOLDEN FLASHESKENT
19-7 | Road
78
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
16-10 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN FLASHES
0%
FALCONS
100%
GOLDEN FLASHES
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kent State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KENT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)
KENT By 1-7 points
27.2%
KENT By 8-14 points
23.0%
BGSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
BGSU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kent State
94
KENT STATE
Bowling Green
89
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Kent State
73
KENT STATE
Bowling Green
78
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Flashes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Flashes (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
KENT @ BGSU
78 - 71
Jan 6, 2026
BGSU @ KENT
93 - 96
Feb 18, 2025
KENT @ BGSU
91 - 84
Jan 28, 2025
BGSU @ KENT
57 - 75
Mar 15, 2024
KENT @ BGSU
73 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+10.9% more
Kent State: 13.3
vs
Bowling Green: 11.9
Blocks (L5)
+37.8% more
Bowling Green: 4.6
vs
Kent State: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+28.1% more
Bowling Green: 9.0
vs
Kent State: 7.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Bowling Green: 73.6%
vs
Kent State: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KENT Score
94.0
78
BGSU Score
89.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 34.4
21.0 / 37.0
Assists
11.9 / 13.3
7.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.4
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 43.0
40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 70.6
69.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 38.9
39.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.0 / 7.0
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 12.7
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -2.4
BGSU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -2.4
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +4.6
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
KENT
BGSU
KENT
ML
66%
21-11
53%
18-16
56%
18-14
65%
22-12
ATS
72%
23-9
65%
22-12
56%
18-14
65%
22-12
TTL
53%
17-15
44%
15-19
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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