NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
8-16 | Road
72
BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
15-10 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
0%
BULLS
100%
HUSKIES
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUF +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
NIU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NIU By 8-14 points
20.1%
BUF By 1-7 points
21.6%
BUF By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Illinois
77
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Buffalo
74
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Northern Illinois
71
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Buffalo
78
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
NIU @ BUF
72 - 70
Dec 31, 2025
BUF @ NIU
81 - 67
Feb 11, 2025
BUF @ NIU
73 - 67
Mar 8, 2024
NIU @ BUF
78 - 68
Feb 13, 2024
BUF @ NIU
68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.2% more
Northern Illinois: 14.7
vs
Buffalo: 12.4
Steals (L5)
+39.1% more
Buffalo: 7.1
vs
Northern Illinois: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+33.6% more
Buffalo: 14.4
vs
Northern Illinois: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.2%
Buffalo: 76.5%
vs
Northern Illinois: 60.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIU Score
77.0
72
BUF Score
74.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 27.3
36.0 / 46.0
Assists
14.4 / 10.8
11.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 35.2
46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 60.3
71.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 32.7
25.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.1 / 5.1
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 14.7
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NIU
BUF
NIU
ML
45%
14-17
67%
20-10
45%
14-17
66%
19-10
ATS
55%
17-14
63%
19-11
45%
14-17
66%
19-10
TTL
48%
15-16
67%
20-10
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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