BOSTON COLLEGE
EAGLESBC
9-16 | Road
72
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
12-13 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
EAGLES
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
BC By 1-7 points
0.2%
BC By 8-14 points
0.0%
FSU By 1-7 points
1.7%
FSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston College
46
BOSTON COLLEGE
Florida State
74
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
Boston College
68
BOSTON COLLEGE
Florida State
72
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (-12)
Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.0
Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u148.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
BC @ FSU
72 - 80
Feb 1, 2025
FSU @ BC
76 - 77
Feb 20, 2024
BC @ FSU
76 - 84
Feb 6, 2024
FSU @ BC
63 - 62
Feb 18, 2023
BC @ FSU
75 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+80.5% more
Florida State: 4.6
vs
Boston College: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+33.3% more
Florida State: 4.9
vs
Boston College: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
Florida State: 13.3
vs
Boston College: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Florida State: 72.1%
vs
Boston College: 62.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BC Score
46.0
72
FSU Score
74.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 30.5
33.0 / 46.0
Assists
13.3 / 10.8
9.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.6 / 2.6
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 44.5
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 62.0
77.0 / 23.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 33.2
42.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.9 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
7.1 / 10.9
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -3.3
ATS +/-: -0.3
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -3.3
ATS +/-: -0.3
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -3.7
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
BC
FSU
BC
ML
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
61%
17-11
ATS
55%
18-15
73%
22-8-1
59%
19-13
61%
17-11
TTL
48%
16-17
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
28-0
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