Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lopes @ Aztecs GCU @ SDSU

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

16-9  |  Road

73
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

18-6  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
0%
📊
AZTECS
100%
LOPES --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Grand Canyon)
LopesGCU (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lopes Cover

96.4%

Aztecs Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GCU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

GCU By 1-7 points

10.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

21.6%

SDSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

SDSU By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
75
GRAND CANYON
57
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
55
GRAND CANYON
66
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lopes (-8) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.0 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u139.0 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 GCU @ SDSU 73 - 63
Jan 21, 2026 SDSU @ GCU 69 - 70
Dec 5, 2023 SDSU @ GCU 73 - 79
Nov 13, 2019 GCU @ SDSU 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
Grand Canyon: 12.0 vs San Diego State: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
Grand Canyon: 35.7 vs San Diego State: 31.2
Blocks (L5) +91.5% more
San Diego State: 5.8 vs Grand Canyon: 3.1
Steals (L5) +40.3% more
San Diego State: 9.2 vs Grand Canyon: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GCU Score 75.0 73
SDSU Score 57.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 28.8 20.0 / 37.0
Assists 14.9 / 13.6 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.8 / 3.1 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 49.3 35.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 76.2 89.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 35.7 36.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.5 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 12.0 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
GCU
SDSU
GCU
ML
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
ATS
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
TTL
75% 24-8
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…
headtopics 6 days, 19 hours ago
UCLA's Second-Half Surge Over San Diego State: Wayne Knight Shin…
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago
UCLA vs. San Diego State: Key Matchups to Watch as Bruins Aim fo…
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
New FGCU athletic director Brian Barrio says Eagles' 'greatest d…
gulfcoastnewsnow 2 months, 2 weeks ago
Mar 18, 2025; Dayton, OH, USA; San Diego State Aztecs head coach…
si 2 months, 2 weeks ago