NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
17-8 | Road
71
SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
6-19 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
0%
SPARTANS
100%
WOLF PACK
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
NEV By 1-7 points
1.1%
NEV By 8-14 points
4.8%
SJSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
SJSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
100
NEVADA
San José State
70
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
Nevada
75
NEVADA
San José State
65
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (+11)
Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
NEV @ SJSU
71 - 87
Jan 20, 2026
SJSU @ NEV
54 - 87
Feb 14, 2025
NEV @ SJSU
73 - 58
Jan 18, 2025
SJSU @ NEV
64 - 75
Feb 23, 2024
NEV @ SJSU
84 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.4% more
Nevada: 2.6
vs
San José State: 1.8
Turnovers (L5)
+30.4% more
Nevada: 10.1
vs
San José State: 7.0
Rebounding (L5)
+29.4% more
Nevada: 35.7
vs
San José State: 25.2
Steals (L5)
+15.1% more
Nevada: 6.4
vs
San José State: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
100.0
71
SJSU Score
70.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 34.0
52.0 / 15.0
Assists
12.2 / 12.1
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.6
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 40.9
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 74.0
63.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
25.2 / 35.7
38.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.5 / 6.4
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
7.0 / 10.1
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
SJSU
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
SJSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
NEV
SJSU
NEV
ML
73%
24-9
62%
23-14
62%
20-12
73%
27-10
ATS
73%
24-9
73%
27-10
62%
20-12
73%
27-10
TTL
61%
20-13
49%
18-19
100%
32-0
100%
37-0
Contextual Game News
Steve Alford to Retire After 36-Year Coaching Career, Final Seas…
Steve Alford to Retire After 2026-27 Season at Nevada, Ending 36…
Steve Alford to Retire After 36-Year Coaching Career, Concluding…
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
Illinois Basketball: Three Reasons the Illini Are National Title…