AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-22 | Road
61
NEW MEXICO
LOBOSUNM
19-6 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
LOBOS
0%
FALCONS
--
LOBOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)
AF By 1-7 points
15.3%
AF By 8-14 points
5.8%
UNM By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNM By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Air Force
88
AIR FORCE
New Mexico
95
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
Air Force
65
AIR FORCE
New Mexico
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lobos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lobos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lobos (+28)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Lobos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
AF @ UNM
61 - 98
Jan 10, 2026
UNM @ AF
91 - 49
Mar 1, 2025
AF @ UNM
71 - 92
Feb 8, 2025
UNM @ AF
88 - 53
Mar 13, 2024
AF @ UNM
56 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.8% more
New Mexico: 2.1
vs
Air Force: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+31.8% more
New Mexico: 6.3
vs
Air Force: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+18.7% more
New Mexico: 32.0
vs
Air Force: 27.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
New Mexico: 44.9%
vs
Air Force: 37.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AF Score
88.0
61
UNM Score
95.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.9 / 37.5
48.0 / 23.0
Assists
13.9 / 14.8
22.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.1 / 1.5
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 42.9
55.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 69.4
63.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 27.0
48.0 / 23.0
Steals
6.3 / 4.8
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 16.9
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
UNM
Advantage
26-11-0
(70.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
UNM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
AF
UNM
AF
ML
57%
21-16
81%
26-6
74%
25-9
62%
20-12
ATS
57%
21-16
69%
22-10
74%
25-9
62%
20-12
TTL
41%
15-22
69%
22-10
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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