Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Wildcats BAY @ KSU

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

13-12  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

10-15  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BEARS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (Baylor)
BearsBAY (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

100.0%

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BAY -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BAY By 1-7 points

0.0%

BAY By 8-14 points

0.0%

KSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
109
BAYLOR
61
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
76
BAYLOR
70
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.0 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u159.0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 BAY @ KSU 74 - 90
Mar 12, 2025 KSU @ BAY 56 - 70
Jan 22, 2025 KSU @ BAY 62 - 70
Jan 16, 2024 BAY @ KSU 64 - 68
Feb 21, 2023 BAY @ KSU 65 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.0% more
Baylor: 4.2 vs Kansas State: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Baylor: 76.8% vs Kansas State: 67.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Baylor: 44.6% vs Kansas State: 40.3%
Turnovers (L5) +35.3% more
Kansas State: 14.5 vs Baylor: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 109.0 74
KSU Score 61.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 29.8 47.0 / 13.0
Assists 14.4 / 12.8 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.2 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 44.6 57.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 76.8 82.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 31.6 31.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.9 13.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.7 18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
BAY
KSU
BAY
ML
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
53% 17-15
ATS
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
53% 17-15
TTL
47% 15-17
45% 15-18
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 7 hours, 32 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago
Arizona's Gio Richardson Exits Cincinnati Game After Brief Retur…
headtopics 4 days, 19 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 2 hours ago