LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
19-6 | Road
85
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
17-8 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
CARDINALS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
LOU By 1-7 points
20.1%
LOU By 8-14 points
9.3%
SMU By 1-7 points
27.4%
SMU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Louisville
56
LOUISVILLE
SMU
60
SMU
Simulated Score
Louisville
71
LOUISVILLE
SMU
76
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u168.0
Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim
u168.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
SMU @ LOU
58 - 62
Feb 17, 2026
LOU @ SMU
85 - 95
Jan 31, 2026
SMU @ LOU
74 - 88
Jan 21, 2025
LOU @ SMU
98 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+8.1% more
SMU: 38.1
vs
Louisville: 35.2
Turnovers (L5)
+17.7% more
Louisville: 12.0
vs
SMU: 9.9
Blocks (L5)
+10.2% more
Louisville: 3.5
vs
SMU: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Louisville: 81.0%
vs
SMU: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LOU Score
56.0
85
SMU Score
60.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 42.8
47.0 / 38.0
Assists
18.2 / 18.7
21.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.5
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 52.9
58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 81.0
83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 35.2
30.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.8
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 12.0
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
Advantage
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
LOU
SMU
LOU
ML
59%
20-14
63%
22-13
73%
24-9
71%
24-10
ATS
62%
21-13
71%
25-10
73%
24-9
71%
24-10
TTL
56%
19-15
63%
22-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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