Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Musketeers VILL @ XAV

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

20-5  |  Road

92
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 6:30 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

13-12  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
MUSKETEERS
0%
WILDCATS --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Xavier)
WildcatsVILL (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

2.9%

Musketeers Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around XAV -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

VILL By 1-7 points

2.2%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.4%

XAV By 1-7 points

9.3%

XAV By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
63
VILLANOVA
82
XAVIER
Simulated Score
72
VILLANOVA
68
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Musketeers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Musketeers (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Wildcats (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 XAV @ VILL 78 - 91
Feb 17, 2026 VILL @ XAV 92 - 89
Feb 9, 2025 XAV @ VILL 68 - 80
Jan 14, 2025 VILL @ XAV 63 - 69
Feb 7, 2024 VILL @ XAV 53 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +104.3% more
Xavier: 3.3 vs Villanova: 1.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Xavier: 74.1% vs Villanova: 66.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Xavier: 38.1% vs Villanova: 33.9%
Steals (L5) +30.0% more
Villanova: 8.6 vs Xavier: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 63.0 92
XAV Score 82.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 33.9 43.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.2 / 15.5 26.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.3 / 1.6 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 44.6 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 66.9 85.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 37.0 42.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.6 4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 9.5 16.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
VILL
XAV
VILL
ML
58% 19-14
44% 14-18
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
ATS
73% 24-9
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
TTL
39% 13-20
41% 13-19
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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