MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
24-1 | Road
91
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
21-4 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
WOLVERINES
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
MICH By 1-7 points
0.0%
MICH By 8-14 points
0.0%
PUR By 1-7 points
0.3%
PUR By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
43
MICHIGAN
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Michigan
65
MICHIGAN
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
PUR @ MICH
80 - 72
Feb 17, 2026
MICH @ PUR
91 - 80
Mar 14, 2025
PUR @ MICH
68 - 86
Feb 11, 2025
PUR @ MICH
73 - 75
Jan 24, 2025
MICH @ PUR
64 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.4% more
Purdue: 5.8
vs
Michigan: 4.6
Blocks (L5)
+61.3% more
Michigan: 6.5
vs
Purdue: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+19.4% more
Michigan: 10.5
vs
Purdue: 8.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Michigan: 52.4%
vs
Purdue: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
43.0
91
PUR Score
78.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 36.3
31.0 / 57.0
Assists
18.7 / 19.7
12.0 / 24.0
Blocks
2.5 / 6.5
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 52.4
39.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 74.1
90.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
38.8 / 38.4
31.0 / 39.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.6
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.5
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
PUR
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
Advantage
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
MICH
PUR
MICH
ML
67%
26-13
78%
31-9
66%
25-13
63%
24-14
ATS
64%
25-14
78%
31-9
66%
25-13
63%
24-14
TTL
51%
20-19
57%
23-17
100%
38-0
100%
38-0
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