Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Vaqueros LAM @ RGV

LAMAR

CARDINALSLAM

12-14  |  Road

65
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 7:30 PM ET
UTRGV Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

14-12  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
VAQUEROS
100%
CARDINALS --
VAQUEROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Lamar)
CardinalsLAM (-3.5) 0 VaquerosRGV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

99.2%

Vaqueros Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAM -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)

LAM By 1-7 points

4.0%

LAM By 8-14 points

12.2%

RGV By 1-7 points

0.6%

RGV By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
LAMAR
46
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
71
LAMAR
78
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vaqueros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Vaqueros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 LAM @ RGV 65 - 70
Dec 16, 2025 RGV @ LAM 83 - 72
Feb 8, 2025 RGV @ LAM 68 - 70
Dec 7, 2024 LAM @ RGV 84 - 52
Mar 2, 2022 RGV @ LAM 67 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.9% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 15.5 vs Lamar: 11.9
Steals (L5) +25.9% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 5.2 vs Lamar: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 13.3 vs Lamar: 11.8
Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 48.8% vs Lamar: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAM Score 70.0 65
RGV Score 46.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 31.5 32.0 / 55.0
Assists 15.5 / 11.9 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.5 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 42.6 36.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 81.2 / 76.5 74.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 35.6 37.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.2 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.8 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
RGV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -1.1
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
LAM
RGV
LAM
ML
53% 16-14
55% 16-13
54% 15-13
59% 17-12
ATS
53% 16-14
52% 15-14
54% 15-13
60% 18-12
TTL
60% 18-12
72% 21-8
100% 28-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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