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NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

12-14  |  Road

70
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Hytche Center
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

8-18  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
SPARTANS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Norfolk State)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 HawksUMES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

93.3%

Hawks Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NORF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)

NORF By 1-7 points

15.3%

NORF By 8-14 points

25.3%

UMES By 1-7 points

4.8%

UMES By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
92
NORFOLK STATE
77
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Simulated Score
60
NORFOLK STATE
75
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 NORF @ UMES 70 - 66
Jan 12, 2026 UMES @ NORF 74 - 70
Mar 12, 2025 UMES @ NORF 70 - 77
Feb 15, 2025 NORF @ UMES 75 - 63
Jan 4, 2025 UMES @ NORF 59 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.3% more
Norfolk State: 6.8 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 4.5
Blocks (L5) +20.1% more
Norfolk State: 2.2 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.8% more
Norfolk State: 33.8 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 30.1
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Norfolk State: 48.3% vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 92.0 70
UMES Score 77.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 33.5 38.0 / 50.0
Assists 9.9 / 10.8 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 48.3 47.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 68.4 54.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 33.8 25.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.5 / 6.8 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 14.3 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
UMES Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMES
NORF
UMES
NORF
ML
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
81% 21-5
71% 20-8
ATS
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
81% 21-5
72% 21-8
TTL
66% 21-11
60% 18-12
100% 26-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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