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MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

1-24  |  Road

55
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Dunn-Oliver Acadome
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

8-17  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
DELTA DEVILS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Alabama State)
Delta DevilsMVSU (-3.5) 0 HornetsALST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delta Devils Cover

0.0%

Hornets Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)

MVSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

MVSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

ALST By 1-7 points

0.1%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
79
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
65
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
72
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hornets (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 MVSU @ ALST 55 - 92
Jan 3, 2026 ALST @ MVSU 89 - 69
Feb 17, 2025 ALST @ MVSU 79 - 56
Jan 4, 2025 MVSU @ ALST 55 - 84
Feb 19, 2024 MVSU @ ALST 46 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +169.7% more
Alabama State: 3.3 vs Mississippi Valley State: 1.2
Steals (L5) +35.9% more
Alabama State: 9.1 vs Mississippi Valley State: 6.7
Rebounding (L5) +25.7% more
Alabama State: 38.9 vs Mississippi Valley State: 31.0
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Alabama State: 13.6 vs Mississippi Valley State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score 39.0 55
ALST Score 79.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 39.7 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.9 / 12.4 17.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.3 / 1.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 44.1 44.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 65.5 86.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 31.0 54.0 / 24.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.7 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.7 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
ALST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
MVSU
ALST
MVSU
ML
65% 20-11
91% 30-3
76% 19-6
75% 18-6
ATS
65% 20-11
82% 27-6
76% 19-6
75% 18-6
TTL
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
100% 25-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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