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MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

10-13  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 7:00 PM ET
McDougald-McLendon Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

9-14  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
BEARS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 EaglesNCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Eagles Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCCU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCCU)

MORG By 1-7 points

26.2%

MORG By 8-14 points

16.9%

NCCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MORGAN STATE
63
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
67
MORGAN STATE
75
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 MORG @ NCCU 76 - 80
Jan 12, 2026 NCCU @ MORG 89 - 78
Feb 17, 2025 MORG @ NCCU 92 - 78
Jan 7, 2025 NCCU @ MORG 98 - 102
Mar 4, 2024 NCCU @ MORG 79 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.2% more
Morgan State: 5.4 vs North Carolina Central: 4.0
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Morgan State: 14.8 vs North Carolina Central: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +15.1% more
Morgan State: 37.1 vs North Carolina Central: 31.5
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Morgan State: 75.5% vs North Carolina Central: 63.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 64.0 76
NCCU Score 63.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 34.1 53.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.8 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.4 11.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 46.1 47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 63.0 / 75.5 80.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 37.1 36.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.8 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.0 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
NCCU
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
MORG
NCCU
MORG
ML
65% 20-11
50% 14-14
81% 22-5
58% 14-10
ATS
71% 22-9
50% 14-14
81% 22-5
58% 14-10
TTL
55% 17-14
50% 14-14
100% 27-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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