Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Texans ACU @ TAR

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

12-13  |  Road

62
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

12-13  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
WILDCATS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Tarleton State)
WildcatsACU (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

Texans Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

ACU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ACU By 8-14 points

0.0%

TAR By 1-7 points

0.0%

TAR By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
100
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
68
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
72
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 TAR @ ACU 78 - 84
Feb 16, 2026 ACU @ TAR 62 - 65
Feb 14, 2026 TAR @ ACU 59 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 ACU @ TAR 84 - 80
Feb 27, 2025 ACU @ TAR 52 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +83.5% more
Tarleton State: 4.6 vs Abilene Christian: 2.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Tarleton State: 43.4% vs Abilene Christian: 40.6%
Assists (L5) +30.8% more
Abilene Christian: 12.3 vs Tarleton State: 8.5
Rebounding (L5) +12.3% more
Abilene Christian: 33.5 vs Tarleton State: 29.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 58.0 62
TAR Score 100.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.2 / 32.7 25.0 / 11.0
Assists 8.5 / 12.3 6.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.5 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 40.6 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 70.6 74.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 33.5 28.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.7 / 9.1 15.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 16.0 19.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
TAR Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
ACU
TAR
ACU
ML
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
70% 23-10
ATS
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
70% 23-10
TTL
50% 16-16
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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