Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Saints @ Red Foxes SIE @ MRST

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

17-9  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 2:00 PM ET
McCann Arena
View Odds Details →

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

16-9  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
RED FOXES
100%
SAINTS --
RED FOXES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Siena)
SaintsSIE (-3.5) 0 Red FoxesMRST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

95.5%

Red Foxes Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)

SIE By 1-7 points

12.2%

SIE By 8-14 points

23.0%

MRST By 1-7 points

3.3%

MRST By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
87
SIENA
70
MARIST
Simulated Score
65
SIENA
72
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Foxes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Saints (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Red Foxes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 SIE @ MRST 67 - 63
Jan 22, 2026 MRST @ SIE 50 - 69
Feb 14, 2025 MRST @ SIE 65 - 64
Jan 31, 2025 SIE @ MRST 67 - 72
Feb 8, 2024 MRST @ SIE 67 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.7% more
Siena: 5.9 vs Marist: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Siena: 45.7% vs Marist: 42.9%
Blocks (L5) +21.5% more
Marist: 3.3 vs Siena: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Marist: 11.4 vs Siena: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIE Score 87.0 67
MRST Score 70.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 27.4 22.0 / 18.0
Assists 13.2 / 12.8 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.7 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 45.7 34.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 83.4 / 82.8 73.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 32.3 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.9 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 10.1 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
MRST
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
MRST
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
SIE
MRST
SIE
ML
55% 17-14
66% 23-12
61% 19-12
48% 16-17
ATS
74% 23-8
66% 23-12
61% 19-12
48% 16-17
TTL
52% 16-15
54% 19-16
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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