SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
14-13 | Road
92
SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
11-16 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
0%
TOREROS
100%
DONS
--
TOREROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-7 points
0.0%
SF By 8-14 points
0.3%
USD By 1-7 points
0.0%
USD By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
82
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
40
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Francisco
68
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
75
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toreros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dons (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Toreros (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
SF @ USD
92 - 79
Jan 2, 2026
USD @ SF
64 - 74
Feb 15, 2025
SF @ USD
84 - 61
Jan 25, 2025
USD @ SF
69 - 81
Feb 1, 2024
USD @ SF
79 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.2% more
San Francisco: 2.3
vs
San Diego: 1.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
San Francisco: 76.2%
vs
San Diego: 65.6%
Steals (L5)
+125.3% more
San Diego: 8.2
vs
San Francisco: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+63.0% more
San Diego: 16.9
vs
San Francisco: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
82.0
92
USD Score
40.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 27.7
36.0 / 43.0
Assists
16.9 / 10.4
15.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.4 / 2.3
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 37.3
48.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
65.6 / 76.2
83.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 31.6
23.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.2 / 3.6
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 8.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
SF
USD
SF
ML
58%
19-14
39%
13-20
70%
23-10
64%
21-12
ATS
55%
18-15
42%
14-19
70%
23-10
64%
21-12
TTL
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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