IONA
GAELSIONA
15-11 | Road
68
NIAGARA
PURPLE EAGLESNIA
6-19 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
GAELS
--
PURPLE EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NIAGARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Niagara)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NIA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIA)
IONA By 1-7 points
13.7%
IONA By 8-14 points
4.8%
NIA By 1-7 points
25.3%
NIA By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Iona
76
IONA
Niagara
84
NIAGARA
Simulated Score
Iona
68
IONA
Niagara
75
NIAGARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Purple Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Purple Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Purple Eagles (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Purple Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.5
Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u131.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
IONA @ NIA
68 - 70
Jan 9, 2026
NIA @ IONA
53 - 71
Feb 28, 2025
IONA @ NIA
65 - 63
Feb 8, 2024
IONA @ NIA
74 - 71
Jan 7, 2024
NIA @ IONA
75 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.7% more
Niagara: 12.5
vs
Iona: 9.6
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Niagara: 14.3
vs
Iona: 12.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Niagara: 47.0%
vs
Iona: 42.6%
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Iona: 6.9
vs
Niagara: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IONA Score
76.0
68
NIA Score
84.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 35.4
50.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.3 / 12.4
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.8
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 42.6
51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 73.5
87.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
31.1 / 30.7
25.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.9
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 9.6
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
NIA
8-22-0
(26.7%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
NIA
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIA
IONA
NIA
IONA
ML
55%
16-13
41%
13-19
72%
21-8
62%
20-12
ATS
69%
20-9
53%
17-15
72%
21-8
62%
20-12
TTL
55%
16-13
66%
21-11
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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