Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Flyers DAV @ DAY

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

15-9  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 4:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

15-9  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
WILDCATS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Davidson)
WildcatsDAV (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

88.5%

Flyers Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAV -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)

DAV By 1-7 points

20.1%

DAV By 8-14 points

27.2%

DAY By 1-7 points

8.0%

DAY By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
DAVIDSON
67
DAYTON
Simulated Score
70
DAVIDSON
75
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 DAV @ DAY 59 - 70
Feb 4, 2025 DAV @ DAY 63 - 69
Feb 27, 2024 DAV @ DAY 66 - 80
Jan 3, 2024 DAY @ DAV 72 - 59
Jan 17, 2023 DAV @ DAY 61 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.7% more
Davidson: 6.6 vs Dayton: 3.7
Assists (L5) +36.4% more
Davidson: 18.6 vs Dayton: 11.8
Field Goal % (L5) +11.1%
Davidson: 52.8% vs Dayton: 41.7%
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Davidson: 36.7 vs Dayton: 32.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAV Score 79.0 59
DAY Score 67.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 43.5 33.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.8 / 18.6 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.7 / 6.6 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 52.8 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 74.7 88.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 36.7 39.0 / 18.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.5 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.3 16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAV
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
DAV
DAY
DAV
ML
65% 24-13
64% 21-12
64% 23-13
58% 19-14
ATS
68% 25-12
48% 16-17
64% 23-13
58% 19-14
TTL
57% 21-16
52% 17-16
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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