FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
16-10 | Road
74
SAINT PETER'S
PEACOCKSSPU
14-9 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
PEACOCKS
100%
STAGS
--
PEACOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
FAIR By 1-7 points
23.0%
FAIR By 8-14 points
27.2%
SPU By 1-7 points
10.7%
SPU By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
65
FAIRFIELD
Saint Peter's
55
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
Fairfield
65
FAIRFIELD
Saint Peter's
68
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Peacocks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stags (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Peacocks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
FAIR @ SPU
74 - 55
Feb 15, 2026
FAIR @ SPU
74 - 83
Dec 29, 2025
SPU @ FAIR
70 - 66
Feb 14, 2025
FAIR @ SPU
52 - 65
Mar 16, 2024
SPU @ FAIR
68 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.8% more
Fairfield: 4.3
vs
Saint Peter's: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
Fairfield: 13.8
vs
Saint Peter's: 12.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Fairfield: 44.3%
vs
Saint Peter's: 42.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Fairfield: 31.5%
vs
Saint Peter's: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
65.0
74
SPU Score
55.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 31.5
56.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.5 / 13.8
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.3
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 44.3
49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
69.6 / 69.5
85.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 35.8
28.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.8
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 9.5
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
SPU
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
FAIR
SPU
FAIR
ML
64%
18-10
55%
18-15
71%
20-8
61%
20-13
ATS
71%
20-8
48%
16-17
71%
20-8
61%
20-13
TTL
61%
17-11
48%
16-17
100%
28-0
100%
33-0
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