Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redbirds @ Flames ILST @ UIC

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

17-9  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 3:00 PM ET
Credit Union 1 Arena
View Odds Details →

UIC

FLAMESUIC

14-12  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
REDBIRDS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Illinois State)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 FlamesUIC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

65.5%

Flames Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

ILST By 1-7 points

27.4%

ILST By 8-14 points

21.6%

UIC By 1-7 points

20.1%

UIC By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
ILLINOIS STATE
68
UIC
Simulated Score
71
ILLINOIS STATE
74
UIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Redbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Redbirds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 ILST @ UIC 56 - 83
Jan 10, 2026 UIC @ ILST 63 - 59
Feb 5, 2025 ILST @ UIC 81 - 79
Dec 29, 2024 UIC @ ILST 73 - 67
Feb 7, 2024 UIC @ ILST 61 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.2% more
Illinois State: 14.6 vs UIC: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Illinois State: 36.8% vs UIC: 32.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Illinois State: 47.7% vs UIC: 43.4%
Blocks (L5) +95.4% more
UIC: 3.9 vs Illinois State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 72.0 56
UIC Score 68.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 36.8 23.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.1 / 14.6 26.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.0 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 47.7 55.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 77.8 50.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 35.6 43.0 / 25.0
Steals 8.5 / 4.9 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 10.0 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
UIC
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
UIC
--
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
UIC
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIC
ILST
UIC
ILST
ML
57% 20-15
42% 15-21
44% 15-19
71% 24-10
ATS
54% 19-16
58% 21-15
44% 15-19
71% 24-10
TTL
60% 21-14
58% 21-15
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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