Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Bobcats MRMK @ QUIN

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

17-9  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 2:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

QUINNIPIAC

BOBCATSQUIN

18-9  |  Home

49
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
BOBCATS
100%
WARRIORS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
QUINNIPIAC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 BobcatsQUIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Bobcats Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around QUIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (QUIN)

MRMK By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRMK By 8-14 points

16.9%

QUIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

QUIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
59
MERRIMACK
58
QUINNIPIAC
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
72
QUINNIPIAC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 MRMK @ QUIN 56 - 49
Jan 17, 2026 QUIN @ MRMK 71 - 83
Mar 2, 2025 QUIN @ MRMK 63 - 73
Jan 16, 2025 MRMK @ QUIN 76 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.4% more
Merrimack: 6.1 vs Quinnipiac: 4.0
Steals (L5) +15.6% more
Merrimack: 8.0 vs Quinnipiac: 6.7
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Merrimack: 14.3 vs Quinnipiac: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
Merrimack: 51.0% vs Quinnipiac: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 59.0 56
QUIN Score 58.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 37.3 6.0 / 25.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.3 8.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.0 / 6.1 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 51.0 28.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 74.1 74.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 32.5 46.0 / 23.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.0 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 9.7 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
QUIN
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
QUIN
13-17-1 (43.3%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
QUIN
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
QUIN
MRMK
QUIN
MRMK
ML
66% 21-11
47% 16-18
53% 17-15
65% 22-12
ATS
59% 19-13
53% 18-16
53% 17-15
65% 22-12
TTL
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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