Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Owls USF @ FAU

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

17-8  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sun, Feb 15 • 2:00 PM ET
Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

OWLSFAU

14-11  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
BULLS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 OwlsFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

0.0%

Owls Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

USF By 1-7 points

0.0%

USF By 8-14 points

0.0%

FAU By 1-7 points

0.0%

FAU By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
47
SOUTH FLORIDA
89
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
70
SOUTH FLORIDA
75
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 USF @ FAU 83 - 81
Jan 25, 2026 FAU @ USF 75 - 89
Mar 2, 2025 FAU @ USF 69 - 63
Feb 2, 2025 USF @ FAU 72 - 94
Feb 18, 2024 FAU @ USF 86 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 4.6 vs South Florida: 3.8
Steals (L5) +39.8% more
South Florida: 8.5 vs Florida Atlantic: 5.1
Assists (L5) +34.3% more
South Florida: 15.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
South Florida: 29.3% vs Florida Atlantic: 26.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 47.0 83
FAU Score 89.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 29.3 32.0 / 42.0
Assists 10.3 / 15.6 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.8 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 44.8 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 70.4 69.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 40.8 41.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.1 / 8.5 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 12.3 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
FAU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
FAU Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
USF
FAU
USF
ML
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
ATS
70% 23-10
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
TTL
58% 19-14
52% 17-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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